The transit of Russian gas to Ukraine was cut by a fifth today, and the Germans felt it well.

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The essence of the debate and its impact today

We wrote more about the latest Russian-Ukrainian gas market conflict on Tuesday night, the essence of which was that the Ukrainian authorities said that for reasons beyond their control, Kyiv was forced to suspend gas supplies through the Russian-controlled Sohranivka metering station and the Novopskov compressor station. To date, almost a third of Russia’s gas shipments to Europe, 32.6 million cubic meters per day, have passed through here.

The Ukrainian operator has stated that it is currently unable to exercise operational and technological control over other assets needed to transport gas in areas occupied by Russian forces. The company said in a statement that there is a danger that Russian forces will interfere in technological processes, change the way gas transmission facilities operate, unauthorizedly withdraw gas from transit traffic, jeopardizing the stability and security of the entire Ukrainian natural gas transportation system.

Kyiv has indicated that natural gas will be transported through the Sudan hub in order to meet its transit obligations to European partners. Gazprom warned the Russian state gas company that: it is technologically unfeasible to divert the 32.6 million cubic meters daily volume to Sudan in its entirety. The company stressed that it sees no obstacle to the continuation of transport through the metering station in Sohranivka. He said the company had not received any notice of force majeure, adding that Ukrainians had been working undisturbed in Sohranivka in recent weeks.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Interfax:

Russia has always reliably fulfilled its contractual obligations and will continue to do so.

He also indicated that Moscow has no direct responsibility for the disruption of supplies. However, Peskov did not say whether Moscow was looking for alternative gas routes.

The Ukrainian side said on Wednesday it did not share Gazprom’s concerns. “We cannot confirm Gazprom’s claim that it is technically impossible to redirect transit from Sohranivka to Sudja,” Yuri Vitrenko, CEO of Ukrainian state gas company Naftogaz, wrote on Twitter. He pointed out that due to maintenance work, it had happened in the past that one and a half times the usual amount had arrived through the measuring station in Sudan.

On Wednesday, Europe demanded nearly 72 million cubic meters of Russian natural gas through the Sudan metering station, according to official figures, according to Reuters, the head of Naftogaz said he said 77 million cubic meters. By comparison, 95.8 million cubic meters of Russian natural gas arrived in Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday, so today’s figure of 77 million cubic meters represents a 20% drop.

What does the external expert say about the conflict?

According to Norwegian oil analyst Rystad Energy, Ukraine’s decision to partially cut off Russian gas supplies through the Sohranivka metering station may be a wheelbarrow for European countries ’plans to fill their underground natural gas reservoirs. “Ukraine, as a key transit country for Russian gas, has for the first time violated European gas supplies, declaring force majeure. Interfax.

In addition, Rystad Energy experts believed that another complication unfolding around gas transit will only accelerate Europe’s renunciation of Russian gas supplies. However, they say EU Member States are unlikely to feel the difficulties immediately, given their highly integrated gas network.

However, this will place an additional burden on the network and make it more difficult to reduce prices

the experts added.

According to Rystad Energy, 23 million cubic meters of gas passed through the Sohranivka metering station every day. An average of 70 million cubic meters of natural gas passed through the Sudan metering station in May. Experts point out that under the agreements with Gazprom, the upper capacity of the Sudan metering station is 77 million cubic meters, which, according to past experience, could be increased by another six million cubic meters, so that ten million cubic meters a day would have to be diverted when Sohranivka is shut down.

Both the Slovaks and the Germans felt it

Meanwhile, data from the company responsible for transporting gas to Slovakia showed that less Russian gas was demanded via the transit pipeline to Ukraine via Ukraine. Demands through the Velke Kapusany crossing point stood at 717,923 megawatt hours (MWh) per day on Wednesday, compared to 883,844 MWh on Tuesday.

As a result of the above The volume of Russian natural gas to Germany via Ukraine fell by 25 percent in one day, but the outage was made up and the supply was secured. – said the federal authority supervising the sector (Bundesnetzagentur) on Wednesday.

The authority highlighted in its daily report on the decline in Russian gas transit to Ukraine that “a good 25 percent” less gas had passed through the Waidhaus metering station on the German-Czech border, where Russian natural gas arriving via Ukraine arrives in Germany. The dropout was offset by other sources, mainly by increasing imports from Norway and the Netherlands.

The supply of natural gas is “stable, security of supply remains guaranteed” and there has been no significant increase in wholesale prices, they wrote. Russian natural gas arrives in Germany on the Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic and Belarus-Poland route and on the Nord Stream-1 pipeline directly under the Baltic Sea. The most important is Nord Stream-1, which receives an average of 1,800 gigawatt hours (GWh) per day, while Waidhaus, for Ukrainian transit, has a value of around 600 GWh per day.

The risks in the gas market seem manageable

One of Germany’s most prestigious industry analysts, Claudia Kemfert, head of the energy, transport and environmental departments at the DIW Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, said in a statement on Wednesday that “it was only a matter of time” that Ukraine was restricting the war. Russian gas transit to Europe.

As a result, Russian gas imports from Europe will fall by about a third, but the supply can still be provided by “diversifying purchases”, involving new sources, the analyst wrote. He added that demand for natural gas will fall by the end of the winter, so no supply difficulties are expected in Europe and Germany and the reservoirs can be filled until next winter.

On the other hand, natural gas is expected to become more expensive, which will further increase the burden on the population

underlined the DIW expert, who said that the state should support the most deprived, low-income groups, by taking over part of the heating cost due to the increase in prices.

In Germany, before Russia’s war against Ukraine, Russian imports accounted for 55 percent of natural gas consumption. The federal government is working to loosen this dependence, with the latest data from late April showing that the share of Russian natural gas has been reduced to 35 percent since the start of the war. Germany has a combined gas storage capacity of 23 billion cubic meters, roughly 25 percent of the EU’s total gas storage capacity, making Germany the fourth largest after the United States, Ukraine and Russia. According to a report by the Bundesnetzagentur on Wednesday, the reservoirs are 38.77 per cent full, well above the levels recorded in the same period in 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021.

Bulgarian help from America

Bulgaria can expect US liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from June after Gazprom shuts off natural gas to the country. Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and US Vice President Kamala Harris have agreed in Washington, the Sofia government said on Wednesday. The cabinet added that it will receive cheaper liquefied natural gas in the United States than it obtained the energy from Gazprom.

Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland on April 27 after the two countries refused to pay in rubles. Bulgaria consumes three billion cubic meters of gas a year, more than 90 percent of which has so far come from Russia.

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